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Coal Burn Report

Coal is the one fuel that has lacked timely transparency of market fundamentals. Unlike in the oil and natural gas arenas, coal producers, traders and users have had to wait for months for production, consumption and stock figures. By the time publically available information is published, it is no longer relevant. Genscape’s Weekly Coal Burn Report provides accurate estimates of how much coal was burned in power plants in the US in the past week.

Equity traders, gas and coal market analysts, gas and coal traders, coal buyers, and coal marketers need this essential information to:

  • Understand the extent to which natural gas may or may not be displacing coal fired generation
  • Get the best information available to understand coal versus gas switching
  • Get an early read on the drivers of coal and transportation company stocks
  • Adapt coal marketing and buying strategies based on the most recently available information

Genscape’s analysis starts with its proprietary real-time data on power plant output levels at plants monitored by Genscape.  Genscape currently monitors more than 60% of coal fired capacity in the US, with coverage of over 150 coal plants over 300 MW in capacity.  Combining this proprietary data with publically available information on historic coal burn, we have developed a model that accurately estimates coal burn down to the regional level on a weekly basis, and thus provides clear and up-to-the minute guidance on the fundamentals of the market.  This approach yields statistically accurate results when compared to the historical figures.  (See graph below)

The Weekly Coal Burn Report also includes commentary and insight from Genscape’s power market analysts.  These analysts derive their insights from the daily analysis they prepare for Genscape’s PowerIQ products, which analyze what happened in yesterday’s power market and predict what will happen in tomorrow’s power market.  With their core focus being yesterday and tomorrow’s power market, there is no better team to provide insight on the drivers of weekly power sector coal burn.


Graphic represents Genscape’s most recent regression output versus the EIA figures as of March 2012 © Genscape

 

 

 

“Our accurate estimates of coal burn allow everyone, from coal producers and railway companies to commodity traders, equity analysts and asset managers, to make more informed and timely decisions.”

 

STEPHEN MAESTRANZI
Director of Publications
Genscape