A gasoline-making unit at Total (LSE: 524773.L - news) 's 350,000 barrels per day Antwerp refinery has been shutdown, industry monitor Genscape said on Sunday.
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An explosion and fire at an oil refinery in Torrance, California, on Saturday forced the partial shutdown of the plant, leading oil traders to expect a spike this week in West Coast gasoline prices.
PBF shuttered the plant's crude distillation unit after the pre-dawn blaze, energy industry intelligence service Genscape reported.
One potential cause for the low storage draw this week was higher-than-expected renewable output, which caused actual gas burn to come in below the modeled day-ahead forecasts/nominations of the power generators, according to data and analytics company Genscape Inc. The company’s nomination-based models suggested a 4 Bcf increase in power burn week over week, while ISO data suggested a decline.
Falling natural gas prices would be even lower if not for a growing U.S. export market — both via pipeline to Mexico and through liquefied natural gas shipments around the world.
While relatively small, the pickup in export demand also coincides with slightly less production than at the same time a year ago. According to Genscape, U.S. natural gas production for February so far is relatively strong at 71.3 billion cubic feet per day, down 1.43 bcf/d from last year.
Genscape was recently selected as a recipient of the DMGT Community Champions Award. The contest, open to DMGT companies that span the globe, selected Genscape for the way it gives back right here in Louisville.
The award recognizes employees for their outstanding contributions to good causes that make a difference in their local community. This year’s winners were chosen from more than 150 nominations.
Industry monitor Genscape reported a shutdown on CDU 3 at the refinery, which according to Reuters data processes 200,000 bpd of sweet crude oil.
In fact, data and analytics company Genscape Inc. projected Midwest demand to top out Thursday Feb. 9 at 14.49 Bcf/d, then drop 2.4 Bcf/d for Friday and another 1 Bcf/d into the weekend. New England demand was also expected to top out Thursday just above 4 Bcf/d, fall to 3.84 Bcf/d Friday and run around 3.3 Bcf/d the following week. Appalachia demand was projected to peak Friday at 17.8 Bcf/d, fall for the weekend and then run around 15.5 Bcf/d the following week.
This winter, similar to last, has proven to be much warmer than most people in the natural gas industry had expected, or hoped. Data and analytics company Genscape Inc. said last week that gas-weighted heating degree days from November to January (per NOAA) are on track to be about 320 below the 30-year average (in terms of gas demand, more than 500 Bcf/d below normal from November-January) and 280 below the 10-year average.
Enbridge Inc's Flanagan South pipeline, which runs from Flanagan, Illinois, to Cushing, Oklahoma, shut Wednesday, stoking concerns of a larger outage. The pipeline, which has nameplate capacity of 600,000 barrels per day (bpd), was ramping back up around 350,000 bpd, sources said, citing energy monitoring service Genscape.
According to analysis by Genscape, storage construction projects have persisted in Texas, even as a potential rebalancing of global supply and demand emerges and despite decreases in international production which have led to higher crude prices.