Genscape's monitoring network offers an important view into the North American crude-by-rail market, which has evolved in recent years to become an important component of the crude transportation landscape.
Genscape's PetroRail Report includes fundamental rail loading and unloading volume data, forward-looking and trend market analysis, and spot assessments for U.S. crude benchmarks. Additionally, the report provides the price of Bakken at the rail terminal, loaded onto pipeline, and at North Dakota’s most active crude hub in Beaver Lodge, ND. Genscape assesses the crude tank-car leasing markets for unheated 30,000 gallon, unheated 31,800 gallon, and coiled and insulated 29,000 gallon rail car models, plus provides monthly information on tank car storage rates.
Genscape's proprietary monitors are able to track the number of trains moving and the number of cars per train, resulting in a highly accurate calculation of crude volumes. The movement of crude on rail cars became a key component of the oil supply chain in tandem with the North Dakota Bakken shale boom, but the view of the movements remain opaque.
Genscape currently monitors loadings in key areas and receipt points, including:
Genscape gathers information for its price assessments throughout the trading week so that they are accurate and representative of market value. To get this information, Genscape analysts collect bids, offers, and transactional information from a wide variety of market participants. The aim in this data-collection process is to determine all the circumstances surrounding this information, including quantity, location, dimensions, loading times, delivery times, etc.
In this assessment process, Genscape considers all information gathered and assess the value of the particular markets included in the PetroRail report at 3:00 p.m. Central Time on Monday's. This analysis reflects the tradable value of the commodity in question at that time. Genscape analysts may also look at related data inputs, such as corresponding markets and its own proprietary rail-car loading data.
Genscape aims to evolve its PetroRail price methodology with changing market conditions. Analysts regularly engage market participants to determine if market conditions warrant a revision to the PetroRail Report’s underlying methodology.
Genscape assesses Bakken Beaver Lodge and North Datoka Bakken Raihead crude grades based on market intelligence gathered daily through traditional price-reporting methods. Genscape market reporters contact market participants, gather bid, offer and trade information and assess each market based on the tradable value at 4 p.m. EDT/3 p.m. CDT.
Genscape’s daily Bakken crude assessments are published as a differential to a basis price and an outright price. For its basis prices, Genscape sources its West Texas Intermediate from publicly available prices reported by exchanges.
Publication time: Genscape’s daily Bakken crude prices are assessed at 4 p.m. EDT/3 p.m. CDT.
Assessment Timing: The assessments for Bakken Beaver Lodge and North Dakota Railhead roll to the next front month on the date that Canadian pipeline nominations are due as published by the Crude Oil Logistics Committee on its website.
Basis: Genscape assesses Beaver Lodge against the WTI Calendar Month Average basis for the month of loading/injection. The CMA is the average of the prevailing front-month NYMEX crude contracts during the month of loading/injection. For example, for barrels injected in April, Genscape calculates the CMA for April using the prevailing front-month contracts during April, which would be May and June.
Bakken Beaver Lodge: This assessment reflects Bakken shale available at a storage terminal in Beaver Lodge, ND on a free-in-pipe basis, with an API Gravity of 40 to 44 degrees and a maximum sulfur content of 0.2 percent. Price information for Bakken crude sold on a delivered basis to nearby storage or rail loading terminals are normalized based on relative transportation costs back to the Beaver Lodge hub. The assessment also reflects trade volume of at least 500 bpd. The assessment takes into account prompt-month delivery timing and has a basis of the calendar month average derived using the prevailing front month and second month NYMEX light sweet crude contracts in the month of injection.
North Dakota Bakken Railhead: The assessment reflects Bakken shale crude sold into a North Dakota crude-by-rail loading terminal, with an API Gravity of 40-44 degrees and a maximum sulfur content of less than .2 percent. It also reflects trade volume of at least 250 bpd. The assessment takes into account prompt month delivery timing, has a basis of the calendar month average derived using the prevailing front month and second month NYMEX light sweet crude contracts in the month of injection.