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Forecasting wind power generation with weather models and expert power market analysis

Anticipate wind-related congestion and price volatility

Wind is one of the fastest growing and most difficult to predict forms of electric power generation. It is also a significant factor in driving congestion and price volatility in many regional markets. Now power traders in key wind regions can receive the most comprehensive and skillful forecasts thanks to WSI and Genscape's market intelligence unit. WSI WindCast IQ helps traders gain a clearer understanding of the expected wind power generation within an ISO.

WSI’s industry leading research and development team uses a cutting-edge, intelligent blend of the most proficient weather models available to produce accurate predictions of the key meteorological parameters (at the all-important turbine hub height) for any wind farm around the world. The meteorological parameters are then integrated into Genscape’s state-of-the-art wind power model, leveraging the company’s unique understanding of the grid and compensating for non-meteorological factors such as congestion, maintenance, cut-outs and negative day-ahead pricing which may prevent wind power from reaching the grid. Additionally, Genscape monitors on key wind farms improve the forecast performance by enabling model calibration on real-time wind generation data. This unbeatable combination of meteorological and analytical expertise provides traders with the necessary tools to make more informed decisions every day.

CAISO Wind Generation Data
SOURCE: Genscape's Windcast IQ shows real-time wind speed and direction for regions across the U.S. and in Germany, UK and Spain

 

PRODUCT OVERVIEW

Delivery: Online dashboard, CSV & XML files, PDF report

Frequency: Forecasts update every 3-4 hours

Locations: MISO, ERCOT, PJM, CAISO, BPA and SPP power markets

WindcastIQ Free Trial

 

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WindCast IQ delivers:

  • Accurate 7-day hourly ISO-level wind power forecasts enhanced with critical congestion information and expert analysis into the activity of individual wind farms
  • Regional and individual farm forecasts updated 7 times per day, including two updated by in-house wind experts
  • Two daily reports with regional wind headlines, 7-day forecast summary table highlighting hourly generation intensity by percentage of installed capacity, along with confidence levels and risk assessment
  • Monthly summaries with information on new wind generation build out and any new units in the region coming onto the grid
  • Regional and sub-regional time-series graphics depicting the wind forecast up to 7 days to identify trends
  • Regional maps displaying high-resolution hub-height wind speed forecasts out to 72 hours
  • Time series showing historical forecast comparisons back to 3 days for each region to identify run-to-run forecast changes
  • Final, analyst-edited forecasts consistently more accurate than ISO’s by 5-10% on average
ERCOT Silver Star Wind Farm Generation Data
SOURCE: The Windcast IQ online dashboard provides granular detail for individual windfarms in power regions across the U.S. The chart above shows 24 hours of wind generation at the ERCOT Silver Star windfarm on May 6, 2014.

 

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Clients of Windcast IQ can expect to: 

  • Make more informed trading decisions with state-of-the-art wind modeling techniques and in-house wind forecasting experts
  • Anticipate wind-related congestion and price volatility by identifying wind strength and coverage
    • Detailed wind-driven congestion for specific balancing authoritise and transformers is also provided for the MISO module
SPP Wind Generation Forecast
SOURCE: The Windcast IQ online dashboard provides hourly wind generation forecasts for all U.S. power regions. The graph above shows the latest SPP 24 hour wind generation forecast as of May 6, 2014.