The Obvious Source: Gathering Data from the TSO Website
Gathering Data from ENTSOE's Transparency Platform
In terms of shape, the ENTSO-E data is consistent with the data from REN. In particular, the morning peak for 11 May 2017, takes place at 12 am CET/CEST, i.e. 11 am Portugal local time.
However, it is very interesting to notice that the demand levels published by REN and ENTSO-E differ: 6215 MW vs. 6358 MW, respectively, for the same hour. This 2.3 percent difference is significant and needs to be understood before we can determine which data is most accurate for fundamental analysis.
Differences in data value levels between sources can generally be explained by the definition and the scope of the data. In particular, for demand data this relates to the manner in which aspects like pump consumption and losses are treated. In this specific case, the reconciliation is difficult, as REN does not provide clear data definition information.
Can We Rely On "Real-Time" Published Data?
- A. ENTSO-E Transparency: Hourly Actual Total Load (almost real-time data)
- B. ENTSO-E.eu: Monthly Hourly Load (few months lag in publication)
- C. ENTSO-E.eu: Monthly Consumption (few months lag in publication)
Time-Zone Definition and Hourly Shape
Data inconsistencies become clearer when we have a closer look at the same sources but for a “winter” day (last Thursday of January).
In Figure 6, we see that the demand data reported on ENTSOE.eu for Portugal for the last Thursday of January in 2016 and 2017 peaks one hour earlier than the same data (same days), but from the ENTSO-E Transparency platform. Furthermore, even historical data from ENTSOE.eu appears to be inconsistent across the years. A comparison with the last Thursdays of January during 2014 and 2015 from the same platform (ie. using the same time-zone definition) also reveal a similar one-hour offset.
This discrepancy does not appear for all countries and does not follow any obvious time-zone logic - markets in CET are also affected. This illustrates the need for an in-depth analysis and full crosscheck for each individual source to be able to gather reliable demand data.
Genscape’s EPSI Research Team strives to understand and consolidate all of the different available data in order to provide reliable fundamental datasets in the EPSI Platform. Right after the publication of the statistics, Genscape’s teams work on the collection, the analysis, and the correction of the data to offer the most reliable market data in the EPSI Platform. These datasets are perfect to support your mid-to-long term analyses or to benchmark your own data as they ensure completeness and accurate coverage. For those who need short-term demand data (actuals and day/week-ahead forecasts), Genscape partnered with specialists such as TESLA and PRT, who provide reliable demand data for European markets directly usable in the EPSI Platform. To learn more about the EPSI Platform, please click here.