Genscape Crushes the NOPA Soybean Estimate for August 2017

Soybean
Blog September 18, 2017
  • Timm Decker , Senior Analyst, Data Scientist, Agriculture & Biofuels

On September 15, 2017, the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) released that their members had crushed 142.424 million (mn) bushels in August. On September 2, 13 days before the NOPA number was released, the Genscape Soybean Production Monitor accurately predicted a crush of 142 mn bushels. Industry analysts predicted that anywhere from 131 to 138.7 mn bushels were crushed, with an average estimate of 137.5 mn. This is the fifth straight month that the Genscape estimate has been significantly better than the industry average.

Genscape August NOPA Number 2017

By using unbiased, third party monitoring techniques to gather data on soybean processing facilities and by leveraging our own unique model, Genscape is able to accurately estimate crush rates each month. In addition to the monthly release, clients of Genscape's Soybean Production Monitor also receive a Daily Shutdown Summary Report listing Genscape-monitored facilities that have gone offline or have come back online within the previous 24-hours and an outage tally for the previous seven days. By receiving this data on a daily basis, clients can better understand trends on a more granular level. The report also shares visibility into unplanned or unexpected outages to anticipate localize or national price shifts.

Genscape Daily Shutdown Summary Report

Bunge Council Bluffs Iowa

Beginning with the September 2 report, Genscape now provides oil production and meal production estimates. For the month of August, Genscape’s oil production estimate was within 1.23 percent of the NOPA released number and the meal production estimate was off by only 0.63 percent. To learn more about this dataset, or to request a trial of Genscape's Soybean Crush Report, please click here.