The January 18 release of OPEC’s January Oil Market Report (“OMR”) confirmed Genscape’s High Frequency Oil Production Monitor’s detected December oil production from Libya, which was posted on January 6. After adjusting for known weather effects, Genscape detected 977kbpd of oil production in December vs. OPEC’s 962kbpd (notably, OPEC has often revised the current month slightly higher in the subsequent month’s OMR).
Month-to-date through January 16, the Monitor shows Libyan oil production is approximately 1.049 mmbpd, or 1.104 mmbpd including condensate and NGLs.
While there are still 15 days left of production, Genscape expects that January 2018 will mark a new multi-year high for Libyan oil and other liquids production if Libya can keep its fields running without further violence or weather.
In addition to Libya, Genscape is now adding Ecuador and Peru to its High-Frequency Oil Production Monitor. Ecuador in particular has significant production upside capability relative to its history, which makes it a very interesting region to watch.
Month-to-date in January, Genscape has seen Ecuador’s oil production averaging 515kbpd.
Finally, given Venezuela’s crumbling production, Genscape is currently working on a high-frequency monitor for the nation’s oil production. Stay tuned!
Genscape’s African Crude Oil Supply Report provides the most valuable, comprehensive window available into the current state of African oil supply. Using Genscape’s proprietary monitoring, Government and publicly available data, and imagery, the report combines an academic forecast and data science to provide a unique view of the rapidly changing oil-producing continent, with details for 26 countries and a specific focus on the conflict states of Libya, Nigeria, and Sudan/South Sudan. Click here to learn more about the African Crude Oil Supply Report.