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Libya: January Oil Production at a 4.5 Year High

Ecuador Oil

Following the release of OPEC’s January 2018 Oil Market Report (“OMR”), which confirmed Genscape’s December 2017 oil production for Libya that was released prior to the OMR, we want to provide our full January expectation (we gave a preview of it on January 19) ahead of the February Report. Genscape’s High-Frequency Oil Production Monitor (“HFOPM”) estimates that Libya produced nearly 1.083 mmbpd of oil (1.133 mmbpd of total liquids) during January 2018 (one standard deviation is 59 kbpd of liquids). These levels have not been seen since July 2013. Based on radiant heat signatures, the fields appeared to operate relatively consistently (i.e., no steep, significant dips below the average production levels due to weather or pipeline attacks), which has historically been a struggle for Libya.

High-Frequency Oil Production Monitor

Perhaps, most importantly, barring weather or violence, Libya is demonstrating the ability to maintain production above 1.0 mmbpd and surge even higher.

High-Frequency Oil Production Monitor

Moreover, Genscape’s VesseltrackerTM Weekly African Crude Oil Report corroborates the HFOPM and shows Libyan exports rising to new highs.

Vesseltracker Libyan Oil Exports

In addition to Libya, Genscape recently added Ecuador and Peru to its High-Frequency Oil Production Monitor. Ecuador in particular has significant production upside capability relative to its history (post OEPC’s production cuts and if the ITT fields can be developed quickly), which makes it a very interesting region to watch.

The HFOPM also shows that Ecuador produced 513 kbpd of oil during January.

High Frequency Oil Production Monitor

In Peru the HFOPM indicates 130 kbpd of total liquids production during January.

High-Frequency Oil Production Monitor

Finally, Genscape has completed work on a high-frequency monitor for Venezuela’s oil production, and we will release it soon.  Stay tuned!

Genscape’s African Crude Oil Supply Report provides the most valuable, comprehensive window available into the current state of African oil supply. Using Genscape’s proprietary monitoring, Government and publicly available data, and imagery, the report combines an academic forecast and data science to provide a unique view of the rapidly changing oil-producing continent, with details for 26 countries and a specific focus on the conflict states of Libya, Nigeria, and Sudan/South Sudan. Click here to learn more about the African Crude Oil Supply Report.

Follow Devin Geoghegan on Twitter at @GlobalOilSD.

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