Blog February 28, 2019

Every U.S. power market participant needs an edge to stay ahead. With more players emerging and real-time market events constantly impacting the game, new innovations and unique levels of transparency are required to strengthen your position and to maximize your profits. Whether it’s a cold snap, unplanned outage, or congestion event, how will you improve your strategy and reduce your risk?

At Genscape, we have you covered. For example, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) power grid’s most impactful Real-Time (RT) congestion event in early 2019 was the CARLBD_SAGC1_1 constraint, which is from the San Angelo Grape Creek (SAGC) 69 kV line to the Carlsbad Tap (CARLBDTP) 69 kV line in West Texas. The hourly (RT – Day-Ahead (DA)) shadow prices spread ranged from $144 to $2,800 with an average of $1,941. Over the duration of this event it totaled $58,235 in shadow price spread. With access to our suite of power products and expert analysts, our clients were in the know and best positioned during this event.

The Analysis: Data Visualizations, Shift Factors & Forecast Power Flows

Genscape Nodal Market Insight
Genscape’s NMI platform provides interactive data visualizations for our customers to showcase real-time generation. Click to enlarge

By collecting data from our Nodal Market Insights (NMI) tool and PowerRT platform, our clients can understand all congestion impacts. Both services provide interactive data visualizations, allowing customers to see real-time generation on a map. This combined with ISO published data and Genscape’s generation and demand forecasts, allows clients to quickly identify the impacts and creates the ability to analyze the historical changes in relation to prices and congestion.

Genscape Nodal Market Insights
The CARLBD_SAGC1_1 constraint, from the San Angelo Grape Creek 69 kV line to the Carlsbad Tap 69 kV is visualized in the NMI platform. Click to enlarge

The NMI platform uses the timeliest network topology, planned transmission outages, and standard contingency analysis to calculate forecasted shift factors. With this insight our customers know about all potential congestion events and precise impacts at every single node in the market and how to build a strategy for what’s ahead.

Genscape Nodal Market Insights
Genscape’s Default Power Flow Model Summary in the NMI platform provides insight into specific constraint flows. Click to enlarge

Our expert power market analyst team and the NMI platform also work together to create and present a forward-looking interactive, generation dispatch forecast that can be leveraged alongside your private dispatch assumptions to strengthen your position in the market. Our analysts create generation forecasts with a Fundamental Power Flow model just like ERCOT, which uses actual bid data and the PowerRT platform. These tools determine possible generator outages and start/end times, attesting to the accuracy of our generation forecast.

The Win: Critical, Quantifiable Predictions about Congestion Events

Genscape Power Market Analyst
Genscape’s ERCOT Regional Director, Jeff Thibodeau, leverages the NMI and PowerRT platforms to analyze the West Texas congestion event. Click to enlarge

For this RT congestion event in ERCOT, our suite of power products mentioned above helped us to accurately predict strong flows over the 69 kV San Angelo Grape Creek – Carlsbad Tap line. Our analysts and meteorologists identified a wind imbalance in the San Angelo area while the NMI platform revealed a strong regional flow increase and proximal line outages. Together, they were able to capture 100 percent of the congested transmission hours in January and February. Genscape recommendations for the Day-Ahead Market (DAM) point-to-point (PTP) obligation bids (LGD_LANGFORD to SGM_SIGNALMT) in this same period allowed clients to collect $5,242 Day-Ahead Real-Time (DART) spreads across 193 MW for a $27.16/MW return.

With Genscape’s power services, you can determine your best positions in both the long- and near-term markets. Our analysts ensure you are prepared for the DAM by providing accurate insight to understand your potential RT basis risk. By extracting maximum value and building collaboration across all our power products, you will capitalize on all the various markets and ensure your asset is best positioned. To request a demo of the NMI platform, please click here.