Every Tuesday, Genscape reports our estimates for the weekly storage number that the EIA releases on Thursday. As with any fast-paced energy market, two days of advance notice on storage numbers delivers market advantage. Genscape’s composite estimate is based on a sample gross up and our proprietary supply and demand models.
On Thursdays after the EIA releases their number, Genscape shares their perspectives and expert analysis. Here is a sneak peak from yesterday’s storage number review:
Salt domes in producing region, which can cycle gas rapidly and have the flexibility to react to cash prices, posted an 11 bcf injection. The last period when salt domes injected this much was October 2012 when Henry Hub cash was trading 20 cents under prompt month contract. The same spread traded flat this gas week. Compared to October 2012, heating load was higher and gas burn by power plants in producing regions was roughly the same. This significant amount of injection, despite the price curve, demonstrated the impact of Marcellus production, which increased by +1.3 bcf/d since October. As weather warmed up and Appalachian demand decreased, the biggest batch of imports being rejected are those from the Southeast as supposed to those from the Midwest, or those from the Northeast and Canada.
How did you play this week’s storage numbers? What are your expectations for next week? If you’re interested, you can learn more about Genscape’s natural gas services or sign up for a trial.