With Summer 2018 upon us, power market participants need to prepare for the impacts of strong demand. Genscape analysts expect to see electricity demand increase, with the hottest and most humid days leading to a coincident peak (CP) day. CP days are an important mechanic in several markets that are currently covered in Genscape's PeakAlerts service. By identifying these peak demand days in advance, commercial and industrial power users leverage this information to reduce energy consumption and, in turn, reduce energy costs. Genscape's PeakAlerts service is offered in the following regions:
- ERCOT 4CP: One hourly system-wide peak per month (June-September)
- PJM 5CP: Five top system-wide demand hours on separate days (June 1-September 30)
- ISO-NE ICAP: One peak hour per year (annual calendar year starting May 1)
- NY-ISO: One peak hour per year (annual calendar year starting May 1)
- Ontario Global Adjustment: Five top system-wide demand hours on separate days (annual calendar year starting May 1)
Genscape's demand forecasts are made for each region by an in-house meteorologist who uses a variety of tools including, but not limited to, a proprietary neural network model, numerical weather prediction output, and historical demand days. Once a demand forecast is created, CP risk is assessed based on previous load peaks as well as our short- and/or long-range expectations, dependent on the power market region and their CP protocol. The Genscape PeakAlert methodology aims to correctly predict peak demand days while minimizing the number of false alarms.
Verification statistics from 2015-2017:
*ERCOT displays the average number of alerts issued for each separate month (16 alerts per summer, on average)
**IESO service began in 2017
Genscape's outlook for this summer anticipates a slightly warmer season year-over-year across the eastern half of the United States. Last year saw a warmer front half of the season versus the back half. Our meteorologists expect the opposite to occur, with warmer temperatures during the second half of the summer as opposed to the first half. The ERCOT power market region is the exception to this, and is expected to feature above-normal temperatures throughout the season. Genscape's projected summer demand peaks, as well as last year's verification, are shown in Table 2 below.
Genscape's PeakAlerts service enables commercial and industrial power users to reduce energy costs by minimizing loads during the peak demand periods when their demand charges are calculated. To learn more about the service please click here.