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The Fuse
Nick Cunningham
September 10, 2018

From the perspective of international oil and gas companies, the continuity of free trade access and unencumbered cross-border flows has been paramount, more important than any specifics. That is because the flows of oil and gas between the three countries party to NAFTA have increased dramatically since the original agreement was ratified in 1994, and the trade of oil and gas has particularly accelerated in the past decade. U.S. natural gas exports to Mexico have been rising quickly over the past few years, averaging 4.4 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in the first five months of 2018, more than double the levels seen as recently as 2014. According to Genscape, U.S. gas exports to Mexico actually jumped over 5 Bcf/d in July for the first time ever. New pipelines from the Eagle Ford shale in South Texas into Mexico have boosted shipments, as have interconnections within Mexico itself, allowing gas from Texas to reach further into Mexico’s western and southern regions.

Reuters
Julie Gordon, Rob Nickel
September 07, 2018

CN said on Wednesday that it had ordered an extra 60 locomotives from General Electric Co, adding to a previous deal for 200 locomotives over three years. The original order will now be completed in two years, and the additional 60 are due in 2020, CN spokesman Patrick Waldron said. Those locomotives will be used for energy transport, along with intermodal, coal and agricultural products. Western Canada’s crude inventories reached 36.3 million barrels for the week ending Aug. 31, a record level since Genscape began monitoring in 2010 as oil production expands faster than transport capacity, analyst Dylan White said.

Reuters
Scott DiSavino, Liz Hampton
September 07, 2018

The amount of gas flowing into Sabine fell to 2.1 bcfd on Tuesday from 2.7 bcfd on Monday. Genscape said that was due to an outage at the fourth liquefaction train at Sabine. As of early Friday, however, Genscape said its cameras showed Sabine 4 started to show signs of life. Reuters data showed flows into Sabine returned to 2.7 bcfd on Friday. The total capacity of the five storage tanks at Cheniere’s Sabine terminal is about 17 bcf. Two of those tanks have been shut for repairs, limiting total storage to around 10.2 bcf, according to Genscape.

Reuters
Scott DiSavino, Liz Hampton
September 07, 2018

The amount of gas flowing into Sabine fell to 2.1 bcfd on Tuesday from 2.7 bcfd on Monday. Genscape said that was due to an outage at the fourth liquefaction train at Sabine. As of early Friday, however, Genscape said its cameras showed Sabine 4 started to show signs of life. Reuters data showed flows into Sabine returned to 2.7 bcfd on Friday. The total capacity of the five storage tanks at Cheniere’s Sabine terminal is about 17 bcf. Two of those tanks have been shut for repairs, limiting total storage to around 10.2 bcf, according to Genscape.

Reuters
Devika Krishna Kumar, Liz Hampton
August 28, 2018

A fire broke out on Tuesday morning at a Plains All American Pipeline crude storage tank east of Wichita Falls, Texas, the company said. The fire was limited to a single storage tank at the Wichita Falls Station, the company said, and none of its workers were missing. Plains did not say if there were injuries, but did say that first responders were on site. Plains did not specify whether the fire had affected any other operations. Wichita Falls is a crude injection point in north Texas along Plain’s Basin Pipeline, which runs from the Permian Basin that to the oil storage hub at Cushing, Oklahoma. The Basin pipeline was shut briefly, according to market intelligence firm Genscape, though the cause was unclear. Flows on the pipeline resumed to a rate of nearly 410,000 barrels per day (bpd) after power consumption increased at about 1:00 p.m. ET, Genscape said in a notice. Pipeline flow averaged about 365,000 bpd this week thus far and the Basin pipeline has a capacity of 450,000 bpd, Genscape said.

Bloomberg
Brian K. Sullivan
August 28, 2018

Cities ranging from Boston to New York and Washington are set to swelter through Thursday as high heat and humidity combine to make 95-degree temperatures feel as if they’re 100 degrees Fahrenheit (38 Celsius) or more, boosting energy demand to cool homes and businesses. A large area of high pressure has parked across the eastern U.S., bringing in a typical summer pattern that has spread heat advisories and excessive heat warnings from Virginia to Maine, the National Weather Service said. New York, Washington and Philadelphia are forecast to reach 95 Tuesday and Wednesday. Boston, meanwhile, is set to hit 98, one degree shy of a 1948 record. Power prices in New York jumped, climbing as high as $175 a megawatt-hour on Long Island, the highest since January, according to Genscape. Demand in the state was forecast to hit about 30,900 megawatts at 4 p.m. Tuesday, nearing the summer record of almost 34,000 megawatts set in 2013.

Bloomberg
Brian K. Sullivan
August 28, 2018

Cities ranging from Boston to New York and Washington are set to swelter through Thursday as high heat and humidity combine to make 95-degree temperatures feel as if they’re 100 degrees Fahrenheit (38 Celsius) or more, boosting energy demand to cool homes and businesses. A large area of high pressure has parked across the eastern U.S., bringing in a typical summer pattern that has spread heat advisories and excessive heat warnings from Virginia to Maine, the National Weather Service said. New York, Washington and Philadelphia are forecast to reach 95 Tuesday and Wednesday. Boston, meanwhile, is set to hit 98, one degree shy of a 1948 record. Power prices in New York jumped, climbing as high as $175 a megawatt-hour on Long Island, the highest since January, according to Genscape. Demand in the state was forecast to hit about 30,900 megawatts at 4 p.m. Tuesday, nearing the summer record of almost 34,000 megawatts set in 2013.

Natural Gas Intelligence
Jeremiah Shelor, Reporter
August 27, 2018

Analysts with Genscape Inc. told NGI’s Shale Daily earlier this month that Atlantic Sunrise should help debottleneck northeast Pennsylvania production by reducing congestion on Transco’s Leidy Line path. “Atlantic Sunrise can flow either north or south once it hits Transco near Station 195, so it can bolster both Zone 6 and Zone 5, if needed,” according to Genscape analysts Josh Garcia and Colette Breshears. “This winter, both Zone 5 and Zone 6 should be in a better place to meet their respective demand. Zone 5 can now bypass the Transco Station 515-to-505 route, leaving that path to service Zone 6. When the new greenfield pipe comes into service, it will also bring in a significant uptick in production, around 0.5 Bcf/d.” FERC issued a certificate to Atlantic Sunrise in February 2017, and the project began greenfield construction late last year.

Natural Gas Intelligence
Leticia Gonzales, Reporter
August 24, 2018
But as the market continues to shrug at large inventory deficits, it could be setting itself up for volatility during cold weather events this winter, Genscape Inc. senior natural gas analyst Rick Margolin said. “Around mid-July, current-year inventories began setting the low mark for the five-year range, and now stand at their lowest levels for this date since at least 2009,” Margolin said. “Yet, despite the series of small injections reports and persistently low inventories, forward curves for the winter continue to struggle to print even a $3 handle as the market is placing higher confidence on supply growth picking up the slack.” With 11 weeks remaining in the traditional injection season, it would take a weekly build of 88 Bcf in order to break the 3.4 Tcf barrier, a level which was considered the lower bound of market expectations a few months back, according to Mobius Risk Group. Intercontinental Exchange futures showed end-of-season storage inventories sitting at 3,356 Bcf, more than 200 Bcf below the five-year minimum of 3,582 Bcf. To achieve even this level, weekly injections would need to average 84 Bcf through the end of October.
Natural Gas Intelligence
Leticia Gonzales, Reporter
August 24, 2018
But as the market continues to shrug at large inventory deficits, it could be setting itself up for volatility during cold weather events this winter, Genscape Inc. senior natural gas analyst Rick Margolin said. “Around mid-July, current-year inventories began setting the low mark for the five-year range, and now stand at their lowest levels for this date since at least 2009,” Margolin said. “Yet, despite the series of small injections reports and persistently low inventories, forward curves for the winter continue to struggle to print even a $3 handle as the market is placing higher confidence on supply growth picking up the slack.” With 11 weeks remaining in the traditional injection season, it would take a weekly build of 88 Bcf in order to break the 3.4 Tcf barrier, a level which was considered the lower bound of market expectations a few months back, according to Mobius Risk Group. Intercontinental Exchange futures showed end-of-season storage inventories sitting at 3,356 Bcf, more than 200 Bcf below the five-year minimum of 3,582 Bcf. To achieve even this level, weekly injections would need to average 84 Bcf through the end of October.

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