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Natural Gas Intelligence
Leticia Gonzales
August 08, 2018

Turning to the spot gas markets, prices were down almost across the board despite hot weather lingering in key demand regions for another day or so. SoCal Citygate prices continued to come off recent highs as demand has been downward trending during the last couple of days, according to Genscape Inc. Southern California Gas system demand earlier in the week was just above 2.6 Bcf/d, with Wednesday’s nominated demand expected to top out at 2.58 Bcf/d. “These levels are well shy of summer-to-date highs and levels that occurred during recent record-setting price spikes,” Genscape natural gas analyst Joe Bernardi said. In addition to slightly lower demand peaks during the current hot spell, SoCalGas has less competition for flowing supply than the last basis blowout event. Bernardi noted that demand in upstream Pacific Northwest, Rockies, Desert Southwest and Mexican markets has been more moderate, and power loads are currently being satisfied by a better-functioning transmission system unlike during the last heatwave event. Furthermore, no additional pipeline capacity restrictions have been implemented prior to this current event, as one that was originally set to occur on Aug. 7-8 was cancelled in light of the projected demand. Still, “SoCalGas may not be out of the woods just yet,” Bernardi said.

Natural Gas Intelligence
Leticia Gonzales, Reporte
August 07, 2018
As for the rebound in production, that may have to wait a bit longer as Genscape Inc. on Tuesday reported that Lower 48 production is down more than 1 Bcf/d day/day (d/d). Rockies production alone is down more than 0.7 Bcf/d. There is about 0.4 Bcf/d of volume lost from the shutdown of Enterprise Products Partner LP’s 1.8 Bcf/d Meeker Gas Plant in the northwestern Colorado portion of the Piceance Basin, with Rockies Express Pipeline receipts most impacted, it said. Unlike other processing complexes in the Rockies, reroute options out of Meeker are limited, Genscape senior natural gas analyst Rick Margolin said. “To the north in Wyoming’s Green River Basin, we are seeing more than 0.1 Bcf/d of drops” as scheduled maintenance on the Trailblazer and Wyoming Interstate Co. pipelines were likely to compel some shut-ins. Elsewhere, Texas production is modelled to be down nearly 0.3 Bcf/d d/d, and Northeast volumes are down a total of just 0.17 Bcf/d d/d: some gains in Pennsylvania output are offsetting a greater than 0.35 Bcf/d d/d decline in West Virginia output, where Columbia Gas Transmission (TCO) receipts from the MarkWest Sherwood processing plant are down more than 0.61 Bcf/d.
Bloomberg
Dan Murtaugh, Stephen Stapczynski, Reporters
August 05, 2018

Chinese President Xi Jinping’s trade policies are threatening to make his environmental goals more costly to meet. The world’s biggest gas importer included U.S. liquefied natural gas on a list of goods Friday that could be hit with a 25 percent duty. While no date has been set to implement the tariff, the announcement comes just a few months ahead of winter, when Chinese demand for the U.S. heating fuel is likely to peak. That Chinese policy makers would now take aim at U.S. LNG, which had been missing from previously targeted goods, signals that Xi may be willing to suffer some pain in order not to back down from President Donald Trump’s escalating trade dispute. His government’s clean-air push has made China the world’s largest buyer of natural gas, and erecting barriers to U.S. supplies could force the country to pay a premium this winter.

Bloomberg
Dan Murtaugh, Stephen Stapczynski, Reporters
August 05, 2018

Chinese President Xi Jinping’s trade policies are threatening to make his environmental goals more costly to meet. The world’s biggest gas importer included U.S. liquefied natural gas on a list of goods Friday that could be hit with a 25 percent duty. While no date has been set to implement the tariff, the announcement comes just a few months ahead of winter, when Chinese demand for the U.S. heating fuel is likely to peak. That Chinese policy makers would now take aim at U.S. LNG, which had been missing from previously targeted goods, signals that Xi may be willing to suffer some pain in order not to back down from President Donald Trump’s escalating trade dispute. His government’s clean-air push has made China the world’s largest buyer of natural gas, and erecting barriers to U.S. supplies could force the country to pay a premium this winter.

CNBC Worldwide Exchange
Clay Seigle with Brian Sullivan
August 03, 2018

Clay Seigle, Genscape Managing Director, Oil, talks about current challenges in the oil market causing prices to slip.

Bloomberg
Tim Loh, Brianna Jackson
August 02, 2018

Welcome back to sticky, sultry August in New York. If you found yourself melting away in the Big Apple during Wednesday night’s mugginess, you weren’t alone. The dew point, a measure of humidity, reached into the mid-70s, a level that can only be described as “oppressive,” according to Michael DuBois, an analyst at Genscape Inc. That prompted residents to run air conditioners and fans at full blast -- and leave them going late into the night when many of the region’s power generators typically slow down or come offline. That sent wholesale power prices in New York City soaring more than 13-fold between 10 p.m. and 11 p.m. from the same hour the day before. Electricity prices reached $429.70 a megawatt-hour, the highest level for that period since January 2014 and well above the average of $33.49 during the past year. Relative humidity averaged 82 percent on Wednesday in Central Park, according to the National Weather Service.

Bloomberg
Erin Douglas, Reporter
August 01, 2018

Oil recovered from the lowest level in more than a month amid signs the supply drain from the biggest U.S. supply hub will continue and heightened geopolitical tension. Futures rose 1.9 percent after a Genscape report was said to show Cushing, Oklahoma, inventories sank 1.1 million barrels from Friday to Tuesday. The rally was further boosted when U.S. government officials told Reuters that Iran plans to hold a military exercise in the Strait of Hormuz in the coming days. Futures touched the lowest since June 22 earlier after reports that OPEC and Russia boosted production.

Reuters
Jessica Resnick-Ault
August 01, 2018

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil prices strengthened Thursday, with U.S. crude gaining nearly 2 percent after traders saw an industry report suggesting domestic crude stockpiles would soon decline again after a surprise rise in the latest week. Traders said prices rallied early when industry information provider Genscape reported that crude inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub for U.S. crude, dropped 1.1 million barrels since Friday, July 27. On Wednesday, prices sank when the U.S. government reported that in the prior week, total U.S. inventories rose 3.8 million barrels, while supplies at Cushing fell 1.3 million barrels. [EIA/S] “There’s an expectation that the build from this week will be gone next week,” said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago. He also noted U.S. monthly production figures fell in May.

Reuters
Andres Guerra Luz
July 29, 2018

Stocks at the Cushing dropped to 23.7 million barrels, the lowest since November 2014 in the week to July 20. [EIA/S] Energy information company Genscape, however, said that inventories at the Cushing rose almost 200,000 barrels, or nearly 1 percent, from Tuesday to Friday last week, according to traders. Oil prices have rebounded from recent lows over the last two weeks, as looming sanctions on Iran have already started to curtail exports from that country. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday he would meet with Iran’s President, Hassan Rouhani.

Natural Gas Intelligence
Leticia Gonzales, Reporter
July 26, 2018

The pipeline has been and continues to coordinate with the local balancing authorities, CAISO and the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power, to reduce electric generation demand, but it determined that these voluntary curtailments were insufficient and that this additional mandatory curtailment was needed, Genscape said. “There is also a new unplanned outage disrupting about 100 MMcf/d” of SoCalGas’ receipts from PG&E at the Wheeler Ridge interconnect. This outage began Wednesday (July 25) and was expected to last through Thursday, according to Genscape natural gas analyst Joe Bernardi. Firm operating capacity had been limited to 270 MMcf/d; previous month-to-date flows were 382 MMcf/d. Bernardi said, however, that actual flows came in about 20-40 MMcf/d higher than firm operating capacity during a recent smaller maintenance event at this point.

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