Genscape Inc. analyst Colette Breshears said recently full service for Mainline B would increase the project’s total throughput capacity from 2 Bcf/d to the designed 3.25 Bcf/d. As of Thursday, Rover was flowing just over 1.6 Bcf/d from eastern Ohio to interconnects with the ANR and Panhandle Eastern pipelines in Defiance, OH, according to NGI’s daily Rover Tracker.
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Genscape Inc. said its estimate is for 107 Bcf build, which would be the season’s largest so far, “and possibly the largest since June 2015,” analyst Rick Margolin said. “Compared to degree days and seasonality, a 107 Bcf injection would be loose by 1.3 Bcf/d compared to the prior five-year average.”
Genscape’s daily supply and demand data showed production during the report week averaging 78.4 Bcf/d, up 0.6 Bcf/d week/week (w/w), and showed 6.2 Bcf/d of imports from Canada, Margolin said.
Genscape Inc. said Wednesday that it was still anticipating above-normal temperatures this week despite slightly cooler revisions to near-term weather forecasts.
“Genscape meteorologists are forecasting CDDs will continue increasing daily through Saturday to a peak of 93 CDDs versus a seasonal norm of 53 CDDs,” analyst Rick Margolin said. “The bulk of the above-normal temps are in Texas, the Midwest and Southeast/Mid-Atlantic, but we should see notable heat move into the Northeast markets by week’s end as well.”
Genscape Inc. analyst Colette Breshears said recently that the firm had “no good estimates” for when FERC would authorize service on the remaining portions of the Rover project.
“Continued earth movement/slips along the Burgettstown, Majorsville, Sherwood and TCO laterals may impact FERC’s approval of those lines, which will impact the addition of supply paths to Rover. Mainline B, which adds the rest of Rover’s throughput to bring it from 2 Bcf/d to 3.25 Bcf/d, doesn’t seem to have any major restoration or remediation efforts left to hurdle,” Breshears told clients last week.
The Permian Basin alone has already added about 300,000 bpd in fresh supply so far this year, but the drilling frenzy is running hard up against a midstream wall. Total production could hit as high as 3.277 million barrels per day (mb/d) in June, according to the EIA, adding 78,000 bpd month-on-month. However, the problem is that the region only has about 3.175 mb/d of pipeline, rail and local refining capacity combined, according to Genscape.
“Compared to degree days and normal seasonality a 91 Bcf injection appears slightly loose versus the prior five years by 0.5 Bcf/d,” Genscape Inc. analyst Margaret Jones said Friday. “Relative to the previous week, total power generation was up 17 average GWh. Nuclear generation was up 6 average GWh, while renewables remained essentially flat w/w. Total thermal generation was up 11 average GWh w/w. Gas generation was up around 5.5 average GWh for an increase of 1.1 Bcf/d gas burn.”
Also in Indonesia, car and passenger ferry Titian Nusantara grounded in bad weather in near the island of Kandang Balak, South Lampung, on 23 May. All 111 passengers on board were evacuated by a tug and taken to port by another passenger ferry, Dharma Rucitra 1. According to Genscape Vesseltracker, Titian Nusantara was refloated and taken to Merak, Indonesia for inspection and repair.
Genscape Inc. analyst Rick Margolin said Thursday morning his firm expects EIA to report a 94 Bcf injection for the period. “While the range amongst forecasting shops that publish is not terribly wide, another sub-100 Bcf report is likely to spur some antsiness in forwards should the number do little to erode the year/year total inventory deficit,” Margolin said. He noted that Genscape’s forward supply and demand data have been showing natural gas, crude and natural gas liquids forwards pricing end-of-season inventories below 3.6 Tcf.
Most analysts estimated pipelines out of the Permian would fill completely by mid-2018, but this may already be happening. According to market intelligence firm Genscape, pipeline utilization from the Permian to the Gulf Coast averaged 89% this year and 96% in recent weeks.
Meanwhile, after submitting requests to FERC this month to bring online its Majorsville Lateral and remaining sections of its Mainline B, “the Rover Pipeline is now in the endgame, having requested authorization to bring on the entire project with the exception of the Sherwood and Columbia Gas (TCO) laterals,” Genscape Inc. analyst Colette Breshears told clients Wednesday. “After a long wait, all Rover” horizontal directional drills “are complete. Construction on all requested laterals and pipes is complete,” Breshears said, adding that filings suggest the Sherwood and TCO laterals were largely finished but that landslides during the spring held back completion on sections of those pipes as contractors waited for more favorable conditions.