April 9, 2019 - Louisville, KY - As summer approaches, forecasters expect the usual volatility in temperatures, likely driving the type of power demand seen last summer. While methods for predicting the implications of these extreme demand surges are historically challenging and models simulating the electricity grid typically take a long time to run, Genscape power analysts forecast power infrastructure impacts through the use of their Nodal Market Insights (NMI) tool. Using a unique methodology and proprietary algorithms, Genscape’s NMI tool accurately predicted over 70% of real-time grid congestion events last summer, an impressive statistic demonstrating new innovation in congestion forecasting and power trading analytics. Today, the service launches in the Mid-Continent Independent System Operator (MISO) region, just in time for the active season.
By design, the NMI product predicts what will happen tomorrow by understanding what happened yesterday. To get to this conclusion, analysts and traders can use the NMI platform to run models for the future and compare them to past models run for a historic day, a unique analysis methodology proprietary to Genscape. Through use of cloud computing power and parallelization, a system where software processes data in parallel, customers can run these models 85% faster than possible just several years ago, taking a process that once took many hours and condensing it to minutes. Users have access to the most accurate real-time representation of the power grid, which allows them to actually make decisions using NMI-supplied information, turning static data into actionable data. The product’s performance is unmatched and shows consistent accuracy over time, making its real-world functionality particularly exciting for Genscape and potential users.
Beyond just accurately predicting real-time congestion the day before power flows happen, NMI forecasts the shift factors and targeted trading nodes with unprecedented accuracy. “NMI accuracy and congestion forecast methodologies have been proven in ERCOT and the PJM ISO,” said Matthew Boyda, Nodal Analytics Manager. “The ERCOT market provides us with a unique opportunity to compare NMI’s forecasted shift factors to actual ISO created shift factors with matches at greater than 99%.”
NMI is now available in the MISO, Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), and Pennsylvania, Jersey, Maryland Power Pool (PJM) markets, and will expand to the Southwest Power Pool (SPP) markets by the end of this year.
Founded in 1999, Genscape is the leading global provider of real-time data and intelligence for commodity and energy markets, driven to improve market transparency and efficiency.
Today, Genscape operates the world’s largest private network of in-the-field monitors, and added satellite reconnaissance, artificial intelligence, and maritime freight tracking to its data acquisition capabilities. Genscape delivers its unique brand of unsurpassed market intelligence across the commodity and energy spectrum including power, oil, natural gas, petrochemical and natural gas liquids, agriculture, biofuels, and maritime freight.