Using a unique methodology and proprietary algorithms, Genscape’s NMI tool accurately predicted 73% of real-time grid congestion events from June 15-July 24, an impressive statistic demonstrating new innovation in congestion forecasting and power trading analytics.
August 6, 2018, Louisville, KY - This summer the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) power grid broke demand records as summer temperatures hit historic highs sending wholesale electric prices soaring and causing unpredictable market conditions. While methods for predicting the implications of this kind of demand surge are historically challenging and models simulating the electricity grid typically take a long time to run, Genscape power analysts were able to forecast power infrastructure impacts through the use of their Nodal Market Insights (NMI) tool. Using a unique methodology and proprietary algorithms, Genscape’s NMI tool accurately predicted 73% of real-time grid congestion events from June 15-July 24, an impressive statistic demonstrating new innovation in congestion forecasting and power trading analytics.
By design, the NMI product predicts what will happen tomorrow by understanding what happened yesterday. To get to this conclusion, analysts and traders can use the NMI platform to run models for the future and compare them to past models run for a historic day, a unique analysis methodology proprietary to Genscape. Through use of cloud computing power and parallelization, a system where software processes data in parallel, customers can run these models 85% faster than possible just several years ago, taking a process that once took many hours and condensing it to minutes. Users have access to the most accurate real-time representation of the power grid, which allows them to actually make decisions using NMI-supplied information, turning static data into actionable data. The product’s performance is unmatched and shows consistent accuracy over time, making its real-world functionality particularly exciting for Genscape and potential users.
Beyond just accurately predicting real-time congestion the day before that forecast actually happens, NMI forecasts how power flows on the grid, or the shift factors, with unprecedented accuracy, greater than 99% some days. “NMI’s results are highly significant since the ERCOT market is the most volatile it’s ever been,” said Matthew Boyda, Nodal Analytics Manager. “There is also no one in the market able to pre-calculate the shift factors as accurate as we do. It’s the hardest and most complex thing to do when trying to simulate the market. Our growing customer base is clearly getting a competitive advantage by capitalizing on the capability we’ve built.”
While NMI is currently only available in the ERCOT and Pennsylvania, Jersey, Maryland Power Pool (PJM) markets, Genscape plans to launch in the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) and Southwest Power Pool (SPP) markets by the end of this year.
Founded in 1999, Genscape is the leading global provider of near-real-time data and intelligence for commodity and energy markets, driven to improve market transparency and efficiency.
Today, Genscape operates the world’s largest private network of in-the-field monitors, and added satellite reconnaissance, artificial intelligence, and maritime freight tracking to its data acquisition capabilities. Genscape delivers its unique brand of unsurpassed market intelligence across the commodity and energy spectrum including power, oil, natural gas, petrochemical and natural gas liquids, agriculture, biofuels, and maritime freight.
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