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Access never-before-seen national outlooks based on proprietary, physical monitoring
Gain access to forecasts available up to 12 days ahead of NOPA releases and up to 4 weeks ahead of NASS releases
With proprietary, near-real-time, physical monitoring of a strong statistical sample of the U.S. soybean crushing population, Genscape composes its national outlooks and outage reports based on observations from key soybean processing facilities.
Genscape's near-real-time monitoring enables the separation of a "normal" processing period from an outage or low operational period for a facility. Normal processing periods are used to represent the entire crushing population while the outage periods are isolated to the impact of a single facility. This creates never before seen evaluation capabilities for national crush. The model also captures planned maintenance outages from multiple sources. Genscape monitors non-National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) facilities to provide direct insight into prospective differences between NOPA and the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS).
Using the direct outage information as well as the processing rate model, Genscape has created a model to predict the NOPA crush statistics (nationally and regionally) up to twelve days prior to the official release. This prediction is also about three weeks ahead of the NASS report, providing timely, impactful data that assists clients in making more informed, quick decisions.
In addition to the official Genscape prediction of the Monthly NOPA Crush number, we also provide a Daily Crush Outlook for the current month. This report takes advantage of our near-real-time monitoring to compile our month-to-date data and estimate a processing rate for the current month. The processing rate is then projected over the entire month to come up with a mid-month estimate of the NOPA Crush number for the current month. This report is released daily and begins following the release of the official NOPA Crush number (approximately on the 15 of each month).
With access to the mid-month projections and the official NOPA estimate, Genscape clients have unparalleled access to any processing or outages trends up to five weeks ahead of the official NOPA release. In addition to the timeliness of the Genscape reports, our accuracy has proven to be industry leading. For calendar year 2017, Genscape’s average regional estimates have been within 0.76 million bushels while our average national estimate has been within 1.9 million bushels.
Genscape clients will also receive a daily report listing facilities that have gone offline or come back online within the previous 24-hours and an outage tally for the previous seven days.
Genscape's R-squared correlation to the NOPA and NASS national statistics is greater than 0.9 for each index.
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The Soybean Processing Monitor features:
- Genscape's monthly proprietary national forecast for the NOPA and NASS national soybean processing numbers, delivered up to twelve days ahead of the NOPA release and up to four weeks ahead of the NASS release
- Daily report of the current month's daily bushel processing rates on a facility-by-facility basis for more than 20 percent of the total U.S. soybean crushing population, available each month following the release of the official NOPA crush number
- Daily reports that include lists of facilities that have gone offline or come back online within the previous 24-hours and an outage tally for the previous seven days
- Up to a year's worth of historical daily data for each facility
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Benefits of the Soybean Processing Monitor:
- Understand trends at a facility-by-facility basis, regionally, and nationally
- Gain visibility into unplanned and unexpected outages to anticipate localized or national price shifts
- Answer the questions:
- Where is bean availability apparently running short?
- Is processing winding down or running strong towards the approaching new harvest?
- When is processing ramping back up as new beans become available?
- What is the overall processing rate related to a particular basis location?
- Will meal be tight or abundant in the coming days or weeks?