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Access never-before-seen national outlooks based on proprietary, physical monitoring
Gain access to crush and production forecasts as well as industry leading downtime information
With proprietary, real-time, physical monitoring of over 50% of the U.S. soybean crushing capacity, Genscape composes its national outlook based on observations from key soybean processing facilities.
Calculated plant processing rates and real-time monitoring of downtime form the foundation for Genscape’s national outlooks and outage data. Genscape's near-real-time monitoring enables the separation of a "normal" processing period from an outage or low operational period for a facility. Normal processing periods are used to represent the entire crushing population while the outage periods are isolated to the impact of a single facility. This creates never before seen evaluation capabilities for national crush. The model also captures planned maintenance outages from multiple sources. Genscape monitors non-National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) facilities to provide direct insight into prospective differences between NOPA and the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS).
Using the direct outage information as well as the processing rate model, Genscape has created a model to predict the NOPA crush statistics (nationally and regionally) up to two weeks prior to the official release. This prediction is also about three weeks ahead of the NASS report, providing timely, impactful data that assists clients in making more informed, quick decisions.
In addition to the official Genscape prediction of the Monthly NOPA Crush number, we also provide a Daily Crush Outlook for the current month. This report takes advantage of our near-real-time monitoring to compile our month-to-date data and estimate a processing rate for the current month. The processing rate is then projected over the entire month to come up with a mid-month estimate of the NOPA Crush number for the current month. This report is released daily and begins following the release of the official NOPA Crush number (approximately on the 15 of each month).
With access to the mid-month projections and the official NOPA estimate, Genscape clients have unparalleled access to any processing or outages trends up to five weeks ahead of the official NOPA release. In addition to the timeliness of the Genscape reports, our accuracy has proven to be industry leading. Dating back to February 2016, Genscape’s average regional estimates have been within 0.68 million bushels while our average national estimate has been within 2.0 million bushels.
Genscape clients also receive a daily outage summary which gives a heads up to plants which may have gone off-line or come back online in the previous 24-hours and an outage tally for the previous seven days. Once a month we deliver outage data for all Genscape monitored plants.
Genscape's R-squared correlation to the NOPA and NASS national statistics is greater than 0.92 for each index.
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The Soybean Processing Monitor features:
- Daily Shutdown Report of approximately 25 facilities (representing over 50% of U.S. capacity) that have gone offline or come back online within the previous 24-hours and an outage tally for the previous seven days
- Monthly NOPA Crush Forecast and Outage Data detailing all Genscape monitored outages in the previous month as well as our model estimate of the upcoming NOPA crush number. Report is released up to 2 full weeks ahead of the release of the NOPA crush number
- Daily Current Month NOPA Crush Estimate beginning immediately after the NOPA release. Following the mid-month NOPA release (typically the 15th of each month) Genscape executes model runs to take the current month to date crushing rate and extrapolate it through the end of the month. This gives the industries earliest insights into crushing rates
- Full history of all Genscape monitored outages
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Benefits of the Soybean Processing Monitor:
- Understand trends at a facility-by-facility basis, regionally, and nationally
- Gain visibility into unplanned and unexpected outages to anticipate localized or national price shifts
- Answer the questions:
- Where is bean availability apparently running short?
- Is processing winding down or running strong towards the approaching new harvest?
- When is processing ramping back up as new beans become available?
- What is the overall processing rate related to a particular basis location?
- Will meal be tight or abundant in the coming days or weeks?
- How are processing rates compared to history?
- Are there any patterns to downtime and processing rates?