Canadian Crude Oil Production Forecast

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Most detailed, comprehensive oil production forecast across the significant oil producing regions in Canada

A bottom up approach that includes well, project and upgrader level production data aggregated by region, crude quality and adjusted weekly to the forward curve

Genscape’s Canadian Crude Oil Production Forecast uses a highly detailed bottom-up approach that examines the most significant oil producing areas in Canada providing a detailed production forecast and analysis.

Genscape's approach includes detailed well and project-level production data from major oil producing areas in Canada, including unconventional/conventional oil production, oil sands in-situ project and upgrader level analysis. Likewise, the forecast is stacked against pipeline takeaway capacity, pipeline production receipts and rail transport to give a detailed analysis of how the crude is getting to market.

This macro view of crude production focuses on the oil sands and offers a detailed forecast for the top producing In-Situ Oil Sands projects and upgraders in Western Canada. This includes specific forecasts for Synthetic Crude Oil (SCO), Marketable Crude Bitumen, Conventional Heavy/ Light+Medium and Condensate production. The forecast also incorporates current financial information a detailed analysis of impacts of planned maintenance, project specific issues, cyclical movements and new project permits on future production.

Genscape’s Canada Crude Production Forecast for oil includes highly accurate production data at the upgrader, provincial, and project level

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Canadian Crude Oil Production Forecasts clients receive:

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Genscape's Canadian Crude Oil Production Forecast clients: 

• Get the most detailed and up-to-date data available, which is easily accessible and synthesized into a single report
• Make efficient, smart decisions with a report that's compiled and analyzed on the growing Canadian crude oil market
• Confirm in-house analysis and bridge any gaps within production models
• Enjoy unlimited, real-time access to forecast team

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Report Methodology & Considerations

Methodology: This report incorporates provincial well level data along with oil sands in-situ project and upgrader level data to provide the most accurate and detailed driven supply forecast report on the market.

Genscape's forecast:

• Provides a "bottom-up" analysis and forecast using data covering thousands of individual wells
• Adjusts weekly to the forward curve and indexes to pricing
• Breaks out crude quality including crude bitumen, heavy, light + medium, condensate and synthetic crude oil production 
• Offers in-situ project level analysis using new permitted production, recent financial information and efficiency gains to provide a highly accurate forecast
• Incorporates upgrader level analysis including adjustments for scheduled maintenance and turnaround time
• Includes a macro-analysis of transportation and storage in Canada including pipeline capacity, pipeline transfers and rail exports
• Discusses key risk factors effecting production outlook