North American Crude Oil Balance Forecast

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See where North American inventories are going with Genscape's new crude oil balance forecast

Get a fundamental view of the market to help inform your price forecasts

Genscape's North American Crude Oil Balance Forecast provides a three-year outlook at the supply and demand balances in the U.S. and Canada. This report utilizes Genscape's proprietary monitors, crude oil production forecasts, and a new refinery crude oil demand forecast in order to forecast crude oil inventories for North America.

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Features of the North American Crude Oil Balance Forecast:

• A three-year forward-looking view on crude oil inventories by PADD based on forecasted movements between PADDs and how much crude will be pulled out of inventory by refineries
• Incorporates Genscape's crude oil production forecast by quality and region
• Forecasts for global and Canadian imported crude volumes and qualities for relevant U.S. regions based off monthly customs data (also considering global and U.S. imports for Canada)
• Estimates of refinery demand for crude oil that consider refinery turnarounds and upsets
• Refining crack spreads between different regions using available market pricing from NYMEX to give an idea of refining margins by region
• Refined product output forecasts
• Weekly updates to the balance forecast driven by new weekly data for oil production informed by Spring Rock’s price-to-rig forecast, crude runs, imports, inventories, pipeline flows, and utilization rates

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Benefits of the North American Crude Oil Balance Forecast:

• Gain a comprehensive view of North American supply, movements, imports, inventories, refinery demand, and refined product output with synthesized data from multiple sources (EIA, Statistics Canada, NEB, Genscape proprietary, NYMEX, etc.)
• Understand movements between North American regions and capacity constraints for major trunklines between regions using regional crude pricing differentials, transportation costs, and proprietary pipeline flow data
• Leverage Genscape’s proprietary refinery monitoring data to estimate weekly refinery utilization rates a week ahead of EIA’s weekly release on utilization data
• Arrive at an ending quality estimate of the crude available to run through a PADD’s refineries using a model that reconciles crude movements between PADD regions